Nobody Knows Anything (About Money)

If you've ever wondered why economics is impenetrable to most people, you probably have too much time on your hands. Or you're an economist yourself. Now that I think about it, there may be some overlap between the two. Is it just me, or do economists seem to issue pronouncements more or less quarterly, after which they... well, do what? Head back down to the rec room and play Skittles for 90 days? What's griping me this afternoon, however, isn't how often the economic experts seem to punch in. It's how often they're wrong when they do. Look at this quote from Bloomberg, and tell me how many times you've seen ones just like it in the news:

"My belief is that you've probably got six or nine more months of positive performance on the economy," said Philip Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Dain Rauscher Corp. in Minneapolis. He expects the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to gain 10 percent in 2005. It has risen 0.6 percent this year. "If you look at economic progress and guideposts like earnings, they have been better than analysts predicted," he said.

In other words, the good news is that the experts were wrong. Huzzah! Smoke 'em if you got 'em, boys! See you in 90 days!

Is there another field in which the batting average of the practitioners is so low, and the excuse for lousy performance so thoroughly institutionalized? As an advice columnist, I'm regularly called to account for poor results. I generally decline to assume responsibility, as I'm a big believer in people, by which I mean other people, assuming personal responsibility for actions. By which I mean their actions. But still, you see my point. The screenwriter William Goldman was talking about show business when he famously observed that "Nobody knows anything." He might just as well have been talking about the Dismal Science, which might just as well have been called Cointossology. (™ applied for, just in case.)